“When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.”

As the divide between people of different ideologies widens in the United States, talk of a second United States Civil War can be heard. While I’m not so arrogant as to say a second United States Civil War can’t happen, I think people are overlooking a few intermediate steps or signs likely to happen first.

For purposes of this discussion, let’s assume two sides. We will simply call them Side A and Side B. Before the shooting starts generally one side has decided to ignore the other. So, let’s say side A has told side B to do “X”. Maybe Side A even throws in an “or else” with their demands. Doesn’t really matter what X is for this discussion. Side B does not comply with Side A’s request. Side B might even respond with, “go ahead and try it.” Side A attempts to force Side B to comply. Side B actively resists, and meets force with force. From this point it’s off to the proverbial races with Civil War.

Now before that little oversimplification of a scenario can play out there will be some occurrences that take place. These occurrences will act as signs that the end, or beginning depending on your perspective, is near.

An early sign is akin to a cold war. When Side A says its people can no longer travel or do business with Side B. For example California stating its state personnel can no longer visit certain other states due to ideological differences. And to be clear it doesn’t matter if the reason for not allowing travel and commerce is slavery, or simply not acknowledging someone’s preferred pronoun. The point I’m making is that the divide grows larger. The whole restriction of travel thing is also shaping developing due to Covid-19 and the terrifying Delta variant. It would not surprise me to see states restrict travel to and from one another due to health concerns.

Another cold-war’ish item is each side no longer trusting the other side…with ANYTHING. Each side no longer believing facts. Instead each side poses its own “facts.” One side says X is true. The other side counters by saying Z is true. The thing that makes this so damaging in our current time is any piece of information put forth can be countered by another. We don’t believe their info, they don’t believe ours. And again, the divide grows wider. It has even came to the point where our media has become split. We have “conservative media” and we have “liberal media.” And each work in concert to further a cause…I think there’s a word for that. Does propaganda ring a bell?

Here’s another sign. In a country that was once a melting pot. A country where there has been a desire by the immigrants coming to it to assimilate “American Culture” (go ahead and look up the meaning of assimilate, it’s a beautiful thing). A country where this assimilation created a degree of unity so strong, it was a factor in winning two world wars. When this desire to assimilate changes to a desire to “fundamentally change” or eradicate the principles of the country the immigrant has just moved to, you may be approaching the end of the country. Especially, if the government actively supports changing the fundamentals of its founding principles.

Let me throw out another example of a divide so great in the United States that nothing less than a breakup of the union is on its way. A few weeks ago, Democratic legislators took the extreme action of leaving the state in order to stop a vote from taking place on a voting issue. Similar incidents have played out at the federal level as well. I believe occasionally blocking a vote is part of a political process. But, in the United States we’ve seen it become a common course of business. One side refuses a vote until it ensures enough votes to push its agenda forward. There is no cooperation to be found. A society can not stand united when it can’t even allow a political process to move forward. Frankly, these actions are more like two countries negotiating treaties than one country conducting routine governmental business.

The final item to put is how voting occurs in the United States and how it ties in with a discussion about secession.  Currently the individual states control voting laws that affect federal elections. If a State’s voting system allows fraud to occur then that state can cause a fraudulently elected president to be elected. In doing so that fraudulently elected president may cause things to happen, especially if the president says, “I’ve got a pen and I’ve got a phone – and I can use that pen to sign executive orders and take executive actions and administrative actions that move the ball forward” that can harm other states. I believe an argument could be made at that point for a state seceding. Otherwise, they are being forced, due to fraud to endure harm. And before you say a state can’t secede. Philosophically this is like a wife-beater saying the battered wife can’t leave. For another more comical discussion on the secession issue take a look at an earlier article I wrote on the subject, American Monitor article about national divorce .

Even if conservatives win the next election cycle, the damage to the United States is immense and may take years to repair, if ever. I hope that a Civil War in the United States can be avoided. Maybe the States don’t need a divorce. But a trial separation might not be a bad idea.